Canelo Alvarez and Terence Crawford fight on Sept. 13.
Alvarez is the betting favorite.
Crawford is the underdog, primarily because he is making a big move up in weight.
The betting odds for the Sept. 13 fight between Canelo Alvarez and Terence Crawford in Las Vegas are valuable to more than gamblers.
Why is Alvarez the favorite? Why is Crawford the underdog? Why is the line so close?
The moneyline helps answer those questions and better understand other conundrums.
For example, recently Alvarez has exhibited deficiencies. Take his last fight, when his opponent, William Scull, looked more interested in avoiding punches than landing punches. Largely speaking, Alvarez looked content letting Scull run and threw only 152 punches, a measly 12.7 punches per round.
Yet Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) remains the favorite.
And Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) has a spotless record and has shown the ability to adapt to all boxing styles. Yes, he’s jumping up two weight classes, but he’s also bulked up – and yet still he’s the underdog.
The lowest moneyline on Alvarez is about minus-190 (meaning a $190 bet will pay out $100 if Alvarez wins). The highest moneyline on Crawford is plus-155 (meaning a $100 bet will pay out $155 if Crawford wins).
But in terms of odds, not much separates the two.
“Pure boxing, they have a very similar game, where they’re kind of waiting to counterpunch,’’ Brandon Yaeger, lead combat sports oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook, told USA TODAY Sports.
Yaeger also noted both boxers use the early rounds to analyze data about their opponent ‘and then try to turn it on later in the later rounds to just cement the victory.’’
‘Very analytical’ boxers
Yaeger this week had Alvarez at minus-185 and Crawford at plus-155. He said he thinks Alvarez and Crawford have comparable boxing skills.
The difference: size.
Yaeger cited Crawford’s jump up two weight classes – to the 168-pound super middleweight division from the 154-pound super welterweight division – as the reason Alvarez is the favorite.
“Canelo is the established guy at the weight class (168 pounds),’’ Yaeger said. “Pretty active for a guy of his stature, fighting at least two times a year to where you look at Crawford (fighting) one time a year, then you’re jumping up two weight classes. That’s (a) pretty massive move.’’
Yaeger said he thinks Alvarez will exploit his size against Crawford.
“Maybe even get in close and just put his weight on him,’’ Yaeger said. “But it’s going to be interesting just because they’re both very analytical type of fighters where they’re just analyzing data and then using it in later rounds, so it could very well turn out to be a lackluster fight.’’
Yaeger said he sees a route to victory for Crawford.
“Just be more active early and kind of bank some rounds and then in the later back half of the fight he could still keep his speed and move around the ring and frustrate Canelo. I think that would be his best path.’’
Canelo Alvarez’s motivation
Johnny Avello, head oddsmaker at DraftKings, this week had Alvarez at minus-180 and Crawford at plus-145.
While Avello pointed out the significance of Crawford’s jump up two weight classes, he also acknowledged Alvarez looking less than scintillating in recent fights.
“(But Alvarez) deserves to be the favorite,’’ Avello said. “I mean 63-2 with two draws. And those two losses, one is to (Floyd Mayweather Jr.) and the other one when he moved up in class (against Dmitry Bivol at 175 pounds). So he definitely deserves to be the favorite here.
“Now you can say that he’s dropping off. But his record doesn’t show he’s dropping off and the competition that he has fought as of late, maybe he wasn’t as motivated for some of those fights.’’
On Sept. 13, Alvarez will be facing an opponent widely regarded as the sport’s best pound-for-pound fighter, and the bout will take place at Allegiant Stadium three days before Mexican Independence Day.
“So whatever he has left, you’re going to see (it),’’ Avello said.
On Crawford’s chances for the upset, Avello said, “If he’s going to beat (Alvarez), he’s probably going to have to beat him on points, which means he’s going to have to do a lot of scoring during the course of the night.’’
Terence Crawford the better boxer?
John Murray, Vice President for Race & Sports at Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas, had Alvarez fluctuating between minus-165 and minus-170 and Crawford at plus-155.
In Murray’s view, there’s no secret to why Alvarez is the favorite – Crawford having to move up in weight.
“We saw what happened to Canelo when he moved up to fight against Dmitry Bivol,’’ Murray said, referring to Alvarez’s loss to Bivol in 2022 by unanimous decision. “It’s tough to fight a guy who’s an elite fighter and bigger than you.’’
Crawford moved up to 154 pounds from 147 pounds in his last fight, a victory over Israel Madrimov by unanimous decision.
“He won the fight and I thought he deserved to win,’’ Murray said. “But he didn’t exactly look comfortable in there. So I do think there’s some concern about him moving up to fight somebody who’s so much bigger than him.’’
But despite the issue of size, Crawford will not climb into the ring defenseless.
“I think he’s the better boxer,’’ Murray said. “He’s the guy who’s never been beat. He’s got this reputation. He doesn’t back down. He’s a mean fighter.’’