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Will Jake Paul get a title shot? What experts think about his path

Jake Paul’s right hand deserves attention and respect.

He has used it to knock out seven men inside the boxing ring. And Paul says he’ll use it to knock out Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in the first round of their cruiserweight fight Saturday, June 28 in Anaheim, California.

Yet once again, Paul’s skills outside the ring are proving to be just as important as his powerful right hand during his quest to win a world title. About six months after beating 58-year-old Mike Tyson, Paul (11-1, 7 KOs) will be stepping into the ring against the 39-year-old Chavez (54-6-1, 34 KOs), who appears to be long beyond his prime but still is the son of legendary Mexican boxer Julio Cesar Chavez Sr.

“I like big names,’’ Paul said at his final press conference with Chavez Jr. before their bout. “I like legendary names. And he’s on my path to world championship.’’

The path is no fantasy.

Oscar De La Hoya, the Hall of Fame boxer, this week told reporters, “I think (Paul) can win a world title.’’ Paul, who embarked on his pro career in 2020, has said he’s already been in talks for a world title shot in 2026. And what about Chavez?

The upcoming fight fits into a pattern that has highlighted Paul’s youth.

Chavez will become the eighth opponent who was at least 10 years older than Paul, 28, at the time of their fight. (Tyron Woodley, who fought Paul twice, was also 39 during each of those bouts.) Paul was eight years younger than two other opponents.

His only loss came against Tommy Fury, who was 23 when he beat Paul by split decision in 2023. Paul was 26.

Though Paul has called his fight against Chavez “a very, very tough test,’’ the oddsmakers disagree. Paul enters his fight against Chavez as a consensus -750 favorite, meaning bettors must wager $750 on Paul to collect $100 if he wins.

In 13 fights, Paul has yet to select an opponent who oddsmakers have deemed the favorite.

Names like Tyson and Chavez, coupled with Paul’s own star power, have created lucrative opportunities as Paul sharpens his skills and chases his title dreams.

A long-established strategy

Promoter Kathy Duva said it’s obvious why Paul says he likes big names.

“He needs ‘names’ to sell his fights,’’ Duva said. “At some point, one is simply too old to box effectively. So he chooses (fighters who) are past it and counts on the public to react to ‘names’ they recognize without realizing that they are now too old to be competitive.

“Paul has taken the long-established strategy of testing a young fighter against a well-known veteran in a crossroads fight to a stratospheric new level! Chavez couldn’t even fight when he was young, but he does have his father’s name. So I guess he fits the profile.’’

Paul said he was in negotiations with Canelo Alvarez, which would suggest Paul was willing to take a risk against a far more accomplished fighter. But Duva dismissed the narrative.

“I think he’s smart enough to know that Canelo wouldn’t involve himself in such a circus,’’ Duva said, adding that it amounted to the “Hold Me Back’’ tradition reserved for press conferences and weigh-ins. 

That said, Duva is among those who think Paul could fight for a title.

“I wouldn’t ever rule it out,’’ she said. “Not as long as there is a sanctioning body out there willing to collect its fee. Another longstanding boxing fact of life.’’

Taking everything by storm

Teddy Atlas, the boxing analyst and retired trainer, considered Paul’s path to 11-1 and a potential title fight. “Let’s be honest here,’’ Atlas told USA TODAY Sports. “I mean, really honest.’’

Atlas said Paul’s celebrity and ability to guarantee sizable purses for his opponents allow him to “handpick’’ boxers. He also said Paul has nothing to apologize for.

“He was creative, he was smart, he was opportunistic,’’ Atlas said.

Paul has boxed four MMA fighters, one retired NBA player, a YouTuber and Iron Mike. Next up: the son of legendary Mexican fighter Julio Cesar Chavez Sr.

“They worked hard,’’ Atlas said of Paul’s team. “They take risks. They’re in the tough business. He worked hard to build what he built.

“I know he hasn’t taken the risk of other fighters (who) have been taking the conventional route. But he’s still taking a risk.’’

Robert Garcia, The Ring’s 2024 Trainer of the Year, voiced support for Paul’s path. It has been charted in part by Nakisa Bidarian, Paul’s business partner and manager.

“He’s doing exactly what every manager and promoter does at the beginning of a fighter’s career,’’ Garcia told USA TODAY Sports. “He only has (12) fights. He’s actually doing better than a lot of prospects that had (hundreds) of amateur fights.’

Trainer Johnathon Banks, a former world cruiserweight champion, lauded Paul and older brother Logan Paul, who boxed Floyd Mayweather in an exhibition bout and since has emerged as a WWE star.

“Whether it’s wrestling or boxing, they putting on big shows and doing big numbers and they just taking everything by storm,’’ Banks said. 

This post appeared first on USA TODAY