One bad game in league tourney can ruin mid-majors’ March Madness hopes
In college basketball, fortunes can change quickly at the mid-major level.
These teams exist outside the Power Four conferences, the Big East and schools not named Gonzaga, but their path toward March success is like any other team. After spending all summer getting transfers and newcomers acquainted with veterans, it’s a long grind to get in the best position to make the NCAA men’s tournament.
It starts with notable non-conference wins, then league play, then trying to win their conference tournament title for an automatic NCAA Tournament bid.
But one off-night, one upset in the conference tournament, could end it all, and Selection Sunday becomes a day of what could have been. Teams that had an incredible season may be left hanging because of one unfortunate night in early March.
“The rules kind of go against us,” Yale head coach James Jones told USA TODAY Sports. “They’re not in our favor.”
UC San Diego head coach Eric Olen argues that there could be more NCAA Tournament upsets if top mid-majors in each conference reached the field of 68. More magic for a tournament that’s all about those iconic moments.
“There’s a lot of value to have in the best mid-major tournament teams in the field because those are the kind of teams that can have an upset or have a run that people get excited about,” Olen said. “That’s part of what makes that tournament and event really special, and that’s why so many people tune in to that first weekend.”
The NET rankings
When it comes to selecting at-large tournament teams, it’s all about the metrics, specifically the NCAA Evaluation Tool − also know as the NET rankings.
While the tournament selection committee values a team’s win total, it comes down to whom they defeated, and how many were impressive wins. Quad 1 wins are worth a lot, and a Quad 2 victory has some value. Quads 3 and 4 are often ignored – unless it’s a loss.
NET replaced the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) in an attempt to get the best possible field come March. But it’s been a point of frustration since it was introduced.
Last season, Clemson head coach Brad Brownell said several Big 12 teams manipulated it by scheduling an easy non-conference slate. Doing so often meant winning by a lot and boosting efficiency numbers, strengthening NET rankings. Indiana State head coach Matthew Graves made a similar point prior to this year’s Missouri Valley Conference, saying major programs play “bye games” to run their metrics up.
The Big West hasn’t sent two teams to the NCAA Tournament since 2005, but UC San Diego has a case for it regardless of a conference tournament title. It has a No. 35 NET ranking and a 28-4 record, tied with Duke for the most regular-season wins in Division I.
But the Tritons don’t have many high-profile wins. They are 2-1 in Quad 1 and 1-2 in Quad 2 games, which according to NET, questions how good they really are.
“You can’t compare schedules. Everybody’s playing different people,” Olen said.
Yale has a similar case with only one Quad 1 game – an eight-point loss at Purdue – that overshadows its 13-1 conference record. Jones said he would love to get those marquee games at home, but it’s an uphill fight to get teams to play at The John J. Lee Amphitheater. It’s either go on the road or hope to run into those chances in the multi-team events the first month of the season.
“If you don’t have Quad 1 wins, you’re not seen as a viable team, and we just don’t get those opportunities,” Jones said. “Our level, we just don’t get the respect that we should.”
Stress of conference tournaments
Even with all of the regular-season numbers, arguments become moot if teams win their conference tournament to secure the auto-bid.
No one knows the pain of not getting the auto-bid more than Graves. He was associate head coach last season and saw the Sycamores win 28 games before losing in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament final. Even with a No. 29 NET ranking on Selection Sunday, the Sycamores missed the tournament, earning the dubious achievement of the team with the highest NET rank to not be selected.
“People get caught up on some of the metrics,” Graves said. “I think sometimes we don’t put as much stock in, ‘Did you win or lose the basketball game?’ ‘
Another team that could end the season with the same feeling is Virginia Commonwealth. Despite being No. 33 in NET and a 25-6 record, it’s just 2-1 in Quad 1 games.
“I think this team’s done enough to warrant being considered to be in the NCAA Tournament, there’s no doubt. Twenty-five wins in the regular season, that’s a lot of wins,” said Rams head coach Ryan Odom. “I think if you put us on a neutral court, this team can play with any team. But, ultimately, that’s not for me or anyone else to decide other than that selection committee. And we’ll honor whatever they decide if it comes to that.”
Projected to be the Atlantic 10 automatic qualifier after winning the regular-season title, the Rams remain on a path toward making the NCAA Tournament, but as a No. 11 seed. They’re facing the uncertainty of missing the field if they are upset this week.
Pros, cons of conference tournaments
As conferences around the country staged tournaments for decades, the Ivy League had a simple formula for its auto-bid: The regular-season champion got in. Pretty straightforward.
When Jones arrived at Yale in 1999, he pushed for the league to get with the times. He said it was ignored for so long, but after nearly 20 years, the Ivy came around and introduced a conference tournament in 2017. The top four teams in the standings play for the automatic berth.
Recently, Ivy League champions have done well in March. The 2023 winner, Princeton, advanced to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed, and Yale upset No. 3 seed Auburn last season.
It’s worth noting the recent Ivy League representatives were the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament – not the regular-season champion.
It’s bound to happen every year; the regular-season champion can’t secure the auto bid, and another team – sometimes one with a losing conference record – gets hot at the right time. It already happened in the Coastal Athletic Association with No. 1 Towson getting knocked out by No. 12 Delaware in the semifinals. Several other No. 1 seeds have fallen after winning their league by multiple games, including Central Connecticut State, Southeast Missouri State and Chattanooga.
Jones has been part of both sides – winning the conference tournament as a No. 2 seed and losing as the top team – and still supports them. The Bulldogs will be the No. 1 seed in this year’s conference tournament.
“I like the idea that our guys have got to fight for and earn it,” he said. “I would much rather be in the (NCAA) tournament right now, but I wouldn’t want to take away that experience for my guys because it’s wonderful.”
Jones hopes to get tweaks that help the regular-season champion and the ones near the top of the standings. In the Sun Belt, West Coast and Big West conferences, the top two teams get an automatic spot in the semifinals and the lower seeds have to survive and advance multiple games to face them. Others, like the Atlantic Sun and Northeast, play at the higher seed’s arena, allowing home-court advantage.
Not every conference has the same opportunities, and that can cause frustration.
“If there’s a way to create a path for the best mid-majors who have the chance to create those kinds of memorable moments, the tournament should want that,” Olen said. “But I also understand that not all of this is created equal, and there’s no way to do it where everybody’s happy, right?”
However, the bigger issues are with the NCAA Tournament selection process. Only 68 spots available makes it tough since 31 spots are reserved for auto-bids, and the 37 at-large selections typically come from power conferences. In USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, 34 at-large considerations come from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East and ACC.
Even with talk of expanding the NCAA Tournament, some mid-major coaches don’t feel like the selection committee wants more of them anytime soon.
“I don’t foresee it happening where that’s going to be the case, for the NCAA to be looking at ways to find teams like Yale to make it,” Jones said. ‘… Because, again, it’s all about dollars and cents. I get it, I understand it.
“We want to have an opportunity to prove ourselves and play at this level and show what we’re capable of. You just don’t get the opportunities as much as you like to.”
Olen said the selection committee has the right intentions, trying to build a great tournament with the formulas it uses, but it can never be a perfect system.
But teams like UC San Diego, Yale or any mid-major having a strong season know what’s ahead. If they can clinch a conference tournament title, they can prove that mid-majors should always have seats at the NCAA Tournament table.
“We’re never going to be looked at as similar to the high-major schools just because of the names on the front of the chest,” Jones said. “But it doesn’t mean that you can’t beat them.”
(This story was updated with new information).