Bubble watch: Where things stand for teams fighting for NCAA Tournament life

And just like that, the dynamic of the NCAA men’s tournament bubble has shifted.

For as long as a team can stay on the fringe of the field of 68, squads can quickly get themselves comfortably into the field or or suddenly seeing their hopes start to dwindle. Look at Brigham Young: last week the Cougars were a projected No. 11 seed, but after a dominant win against Kansas and defeating Arizona on the road, they have surged themselves into a comfortable spot. The same is true for Virginia Commonwealth, which won’t have to worry on Selection Sunday if it gets the Atlantic 10 automatic berth (the Rams are now in first place after beating George Mason.)

Those results have led to some major shuffling in the latest edition of the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, with some teams now in shaky positions and others (sorry, Georgia) in an even bigger hole in securing a tournament spot.  

Here’s a look at the teams on the bubble of qualifying for this year’s March Madness, along with their resume and what’s ahead of them as they fight toward ensuring a spot in the field of 68.

Texas

Record: 16-11 (5-9). NET Ranking: 38. Quad 1 record: 4-8. Projected seed: No. 11.

Quality wins: vs. Missouri, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Kentucky.

Bad losses: at South Carolina.

Texas entered last week coming off a big home victory over Kentucky and looking like a team getting away from the bubble. But it was a disastrous follow-up with a poor showing against South Carolina that was previously winless in the SEC. With a combined Quad 1 and 2 record of 7-11, Texas can get away from the 11-seed line with wins against Arkansas and Georgia this week.

UP AND DOWN: What teams are rising and falling in the tournament bracket

Arkansas

Record: 16-11 (5-9). NET Ranking: 39. Quad 1 record: 4-9. Projected seed: No. 11.

Quality wins: vs. Michigan (neutral), at Kentucky, vs. Missouri.

Bad losses: at LSU.

The Razorbacks kept up with Auburn in a road loss before a big response Saturday against Missouri to get the fourth Quad 1 win of the season. The victory has Arkansas out of the First Four ahead of a favorable week with Texas and South Carolina on deck. Two more wins and they can breathe much easier.

Ohio State

Record: 15-13 (7-10). NET Ranking: 34. Quad 1 record: 5-9. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).

Quality wins: vs. Kentucky (neutral), at Purdue, vs. Maryland.

Bad losses: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Northwestern.

A 15-13 record doesn’t sound like a tournament team, but a NET ranking of 34 buoyed by a strong strength of schedule is helping Ohio State make a case to make the field. However, a three-game skid that includes a home loss to Northwestern has them on shaky ground. After losing to UCLA on Sunday, the Buckeyes need to salvage the trip to Los Angeles with a win over Southern California on Wednesday to avoid falling further down the field.

Wake Forest 

Record: 19-8 (11-5). NET Ranking: 64. Quad 1 record: 2-6. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).

Quality wins: Michigan (neutral), North Carolina, at SMU.

Bad losses: vs. Florida State, at North Carolina State.

While other teams picked up key victories, Wake Forest fell apart late in a damaging loss at North Carolina State last weekend. The Demon Deacons, even with a lower NET than other bubble teams, are still in the field. Favorable contests against Virginia and Notre Dame at home are on the schedule this week. It’s an opportunity for Wake to solidify its spot or fall out of the field.

San Diego State

Record: 19-7 (12-5). NET Ranking: 49. Quad 1 record: 4-5. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).

Quality wins: vs. Creighton (neutral), vs. Houston (neutral).

Bad losses: vs. UNLV.

The Aztecs were unable to make the most of their last Quad 1 opportunity of the regular season, falling to Utah State. San Diego State led in the final three minutes, but went cold and the Aggies pulled away. However, San Diego State redeemed itself with a convincing victory over conference-leader New Mexico on Tuesday.

Oklahoma

Record: 17-10 (4-10) NET Ranking: 51. Quad 1 record: 5-8. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).

Quality wins: vs. Arizona (neutral), vs. Michigan (neutral), vs. Louisville (neutral), vs. Mississippi State.

Bad losses: vs. LSU.

Just when it looked like the ship was sinking in Oklahoma, the Sooners stayed afloat with a massive win against Mississippi State. Not only did it snap a five-game losing streak, it moved Oklahoma from out of the field to First Four territory. Good news, but the Sooners aren’t out of the woods yet. It’ll have a chance to keep moving upward with Kentucky visiting on Tuesday before a trip to Mississippi on Saturday.

North Carolina

Record: 18-11 (11-6). NET Ranking: 44. Quad 1 record: 1-10. Projected seed: First four out.

Quality wins: vs. UCLA (neutral), SMU.

Bad losses: vs. Stanford.

The Tar Heels are doing all they can do at the moment, handling business during a four-game win streak against less-than-stellar opposition. Still, North Carolina can’t expect to move into the projected field without another Quad 1 victory. Duke presents that opportunity in the final game of the regular season. Otherwise, they’ll need a run in the ACC tournament.

Xavier

Record: 18-10 (10-7). NET Ranking: 53. Quad 1 record: 1-9. Projected seed: First four out.

Quality wins: at Marquette, vs. Connecticut.

Bad losses: at TCU, at Georgetown.

Like North Carolina, Xavier is handling business against bad teams to stay in consideration. The Musketeers have won four in a row, but three of those victories are in the Quad 3 category. Saturday’s home game against Creighton is a prime opportunity for Xavier to impress and show the selection committee it has momentum at the right time.

Boise State

Record: 19-8 (11-5). NET Ranking: 45. Quad 1 record: 3-5. Projected seed: First four out.

Quality wins: vs. Clemson, vs. St. Mary’s (neutral).

Bad losses: vs. Boston College (neutral), vs. Washington State.

New to the bubble, Boise State could be the fourth Mountain West team to be in the projected field. The Broncos have won six of their last seven, with the lone loss at San Diego State. Wednesday is a big night for the Broncos to move up in the bubble with a visit from Utah State. A win and the combined Quad 1 and 2 record would be 7-6 and likely put them in the field.

Villanova

Record: 16-12 (9-8). NET Ranking: 50. Quad 1 record: 2-6. Projected seed: First four out.

Quality wins: vs. St. John’s, vs. Connecticut, vs. Marquette.

Bad losses: vs. Columbia, vs. Virginia (neutral), vs. Georgetown.

The roller coaster in Villanova continues as the Wildcats find themselves now back in consideration. After being unable to steal a road win against Connecticut, they responded with an impressive defeat of Marquette. Villanova has recent quality wins, but it is also weighed down by some awful losses earlier in the season. The Wildcats finish with Seton Hall, Butler and Georgetown. Three more wins would put them within striking range of the field entering the Big East tournament.