This story has been updated with new information
The Indianapolis Colts have endured an up-and-down second season under coach Shane Steichen’s leadership, but they enter Week 17 with a legitimate chance to make a playoff run.
Such a run seemed unlikely when the Colts lost head-to-head to the Denver Broncos in a critical Week 15 matchup, dropping Indianapolis to 6-8. However, an easier end-of-season schedule has positioned the Colts among the top challengers for the AFC’s No. 7 seed.
The Colts have little room for error in their quest for the playoffs. They also need help to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2020.
Just how narrow is Indianapolis’ path to the postseason? Here’s a look at the Colts’ playoff chances entering their Week 17 contest.
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Colts playoff chances
The Colts have an 18% chance to make the playoffs before Sunday of Week 17, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That ranks as the highest chance among the three teams positioned to battle the Broncos for the AFC’s No. 7 seed (the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals have 16% and 7% chances respectively).
Colts playoff odds
Oddsmakers are slightly more pessimistic about the Colts’ postseason chances. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Indianapolis with +650 odds to make the postseason entering Week 17’s Sunday action. That gives the Colts an implied probability of 13.33% to qualify for the playoffs.
What needs to happen for Colts to make playoffs?
The Colts need two things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:
The Colts must win their final two games.
The Dolphins to win their final two games (at Browns, at Jets) and/or the Bengals to win in Week 18 (at Steelers).
The Broncos must lose in Week 18 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
That represents the Colts’ only path to postseason contention, as the Houston Texans already wrapped up the AFC South by virtue of their nine wins and two head-to-head victories over the Colts.
The Colts cannot overtake the Broncos unless there is at least three-way tie for the No. 7 seed in the AFC, as Denver beat Indianapolis head-to-head in Week 15. As such, Indianapolis needs either the Dolphins or Bengals to win out to create the three- or four-way tie that would allow the Colts into the playoffs.
Colts remaining schedule
The good news for Colts fans? Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, per Tankathon. They are playing against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined 5-25 record, over the season’s final two weeks.
The Colts will be favored in both of those games. That will give them a chance to win out and put pressure on the Broncos to win in a tough Week 18 matchup.
Below is a full look at Indianapolis’ schedule:
Week 17: at New York Giants (2-13)
Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
Broncos remaining schedule
The other good news for the Indianapolis faithful is that the Broncos have a difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They are facing the 15-1 Chiefs in the final week of the season. Sean Payton’s squad will have to bring its A-game to knock off Kansas City after failing to clinch a playoff berth in a 30-24 Week 17 loss to the Bengals.
That said, the Chiefs have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and could rest their starters in that game. If Patrick Mahomes and Co. don’t play in that contest or only play in part, that could allow Denver an easier path toward clinching the AFC’s No. 7 seed.
Will Andy Reid prioritize rest or view Week 18 as a chance to knock a divisional rival out of the playoffs? The answer to that question may determine whether the Colts have a legitimate chance to make the postseason.
Below is a full look at Denver’s schedule:
Week 18: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
Dolphins remaining schedule
The Dolphins don’t have an overly difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They are playing against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets in the season’s final two weeks. That gives Miami the sixth-easiest schedule league-wide, entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29.
Below is a full look at Miami’s schedule:
Week 17: at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Week 18: at New York Jets (4-11)
Bengals remaining schedule
The Bengals already won their Week 17 game against the Broncos. They need to beat another potential playoff team, the Steelers, in Week 18 to open the door for the Colts to get into the playoffs.
Below is a full look at Cincinnati’s schedule:
Week 18: at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Colts potential playoff opponents
If the Colts make the NFL playoffs, they can only be the No. 7 seed. That leaves them with two potential first-round opponents. They are as follows:
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
The Bills have the inside track to the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a Week 17 win over the New York Jets.
AFC playoff picture Week 17
AFC
Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).
NFC
Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.