Will Arizona State get College Football Playoff bye after Big 12 win?

On Saturday afternoon, Arizona State left little doubt about who the best team in the Big 12 was during the 2024 college football season.

The Sun Devils punctuated an 11-2 regular season with a dominant 45-19 win against Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, riding 208 total yards and three touchdowns from Cam Skattebo on their way to a lopsided victory.

It was an exclamation point on one of the best stories in college football this season, with Arizona State winning a conference in which it was picked to finish in last place in the league’s preseason poll.

Forks Up! Arizona State captures Big 12 title; celebrate with new book!

Though coach Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils will spend much of their Saturday basking in their accomplishment, questions still linger for them that won’t be answered until Sunday. The win against the Cyclones earned Arizona State a spot in the College Football Playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

But once in the 12-team field, where will it be?

Here’s what you need to know about Arizona State and where it might end up in the College Football Playoff bracket:

Is Arizona State in the College Football Playoff?

Technically, no. For all intents and purposes, though? Yes, the Sun Devils are in.

The College Football playoff reserves spots for the five highest-rated conference champions. Arizona State was nine spots higher than Army, the next-highest-ranked conference champion, in the most recent playoff selection committee rankings, which were released last Tuesday. While Army drubbed Tulane 35-14 to win the American Athletic Conference Friday night, it won’t be enough to vault it past the Sun Devils.

Will Arizona State get bye in College Football Playoff?

The 12-team College Football Playoff guarantees the four highest-rated conference champions a first-round bye and an automatic spot in the national quarterfinals. With four major conferences — the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC — the widely held assumption was that in most years, those four byes would be earned by the champion of each of those leagues.

In the new format’s first year, that might not be the case. 

In the most recent rankings from the playoff selection committee, Boise State was No. 10, while Arizona State was five spots behind at No. 15. The Broncos, who won the Mountain West championship game against UNLV on Friday night, were the fourth highest-rated conference champion, with the Sun Devils fifth. Barring a shakeup, Boise State is in a position to earn that fourth and final bye while Arizona State would have to play a first-round game, likely on the road.

The question now is whether it will remain that way.

The Sun Devils’ margin of victory against Iowa State, a fellow top-20 team, was impressive. It also capped off a six-game stretch in which Arizona State was among the most impressive teams in the sport. During that time, it went 6-0 and beat three teams that were ranked in the top 20 at the time of the matchup.

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark was quick to make note of that during the post-game trophy presentation.

‘The last six weeks, there has not been a better team in college football than ASU,” he said. “As far as I’m concerned, you’ve punched your ticket to Tempe.’ (one of the playoff quarterfinal games is the Fiesta Bowl in nearby Glendale, Arizona, where the Sun Devils would likely end up if it gets a bye.)

The question is whether they have done enough to jump Boise State and get that coveted fourth first-round bye.

The Broncos impressed in their Mountain West championship victory, beating a top-20 UNLV team by 14 points for their second win of the season against the Rebels. Ashton Jeanty bolstered his already robust Heisman Trophy resume with 209 rushing yards and a touchdown.

As eye-opening as Arizona State’s win against Iowa State was, will it be enough to push the Sun Devils up six spots and past a team that also won during conference championship week? Entering this week, Arizona State had the No. 16 strength of record in ESPN’s Football Power Index, five spots behind Boise State. The Sun Devils had the No. 72 strength of schedule, putting it 10 spots ahead of the Broncos.

There’s one other scenario that could benefit Dillingham’s team. If Clemson beats SMU in the ACC championship game, the Tigers would be one of the five top conference champions (at the expense of the Mustangs, the projected No. 3 seed, no less). But at No. 17 in the most recent playoff committee rankings, it’s almost certain they Tigers finish behind Arizona State, which would make the Sun Devils the No. 4 conference champion, at worst.

Even if SMU wins, it’s possible that the Sun Devils could fail to earn a first-round bye, but at least avoid being the No. 12 seed, which they would have been based on the most recent committee rankings. The thumping of the Cyclones may have been enough to move Arizona State past the final at-large team in the field, which is currently Alabama.

College Football Playoff projected bracket

Here’s the projected College Football Playoff bracket as of 5:45 p.m. ET, with the Big 12 championship result taken into consideration and the results of the Big Ten, SEC and ACC championships based on the higher seed winning:

Oregon
Texas
SMU
Boise State
Notre Dame
Penn State
Georgia
Ohio State
Tennessee
Indiana
Arizona State
Alabama