Grading College Football Playoff sleepers … from Indiana to Illinois
Indiana Hoosiers are a College Football Playoff contender, and that’s no joke. Go ahead, Google it.
In the floplympics, Mike Norvell leads Lincoln Riley and Hugh Freeze.
When evaluating playoff sleepers, Indiana and SMU stand out a bit ahead of the rest.
Coach “Google Me” saw a spike in search traffic Saturday afternoon.
Indiana’s 56-7 destruction of Nebraska sparked more college football observers to familiarize themselves with Curt Cignetti, the first-year coach of the Hoosiers who’s full of bravado, with the résumé to back it up.
“There was a national perception that Nebraska had a pretty legit defense on a national scale,” Cignetti said after the romp. “So, that will open eyes, OK?”
Consider me wide-eyed.
The Hoosiers are among seven undefeated Power Four teams, and although their 7-0 record comes as a surprise to many, it doesn’t to Cignetti, who boldly declared this after Indiana hired him: “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me.”
More than halfway through Cignetti’s first season in Bloomington, the prospect of his Hoosiers qualifying for the College Football Playoff generates some Google buzz.
Indiana’s playoff hopes are real, for three reasons:
1. The schedule breaks nicely. The Hoosiers won’t play fellow the Big Ten’s other undefeated teams, Oregon and Penn State, during the regular season. Just one ranked opponent, Ohio State, lurks on Indiana’s schedule. The Hoosiers represents the Big Ten’s best chance at a fourth playoff qualifier, and an 11-1 record might entice the CFP committee, as long as Indiana doesn’t get demolished by the Buckeyes.
2. The Hoosiers aren’t just winning. They’re blowing out their competition. So, true, this win against No. 25 Nebraska registers as their best win, but the selection committee shouldn’t ignore an average margin of victory of 35 points.
3. No obvious weakness cripples Indiana, and veteran quarterback Kurtis Rourke registers as a trump card.
Cignetti disproved the notion that fans must wait patiently for years while a program turnaround creeps forward. In this microwave era, Cignetti flipped the roster by adding 31 transfers, third-most in the nation. Rourke, an Ohio transfer, ranked as a premier prize, though he is expected to miss next week’s game against Washington due to a hand injury.
Cignetti’s transfer haul included several quality players who followed him off James Madison’s team that finished 11-2 last season.
If you haven’t by now, go ahead and Google Cignetti. You’ll see he’s never had a losing record in 14 seasons as a coach, across Division II, FCS and FBS. He’s coached three programs into their respective division’s playoff. His career winning percentage checks in at .783, and he’s not content with Indiana being a cute October story before fading into basketball season.
“I’m not going to let (players) get complacent, or the coaches either,” Cignetti said. “I was a maniac in the fourth quarter of this game, a maniac.”
In this case, I think being a maniac is a good thing. I’ll Google it, to be sure.
What’s the status of Indiana and some playoff sleepers? Here’s the “Topp Rope” view:
Evaluating College Football Playoff sleeper teams
Indiana (7-0): Indiana’s schedule could backfire if the bubble overcrowds. The Hoosiers didn’t play a Power Four nonconference opponent. Games against Western Illinois, Charlotte and Florida International anchor their strength of schedule. Nonetheless, when evaluating sleeper teams for the playoff, Indiana’s offensive and defense balance and litany of blowout victories make the Hoosiers a … Real contender.
Southern Methodist (6-1): The Mustangs lost by three points to Brigham Young, but that’s not a dealbreaker considering the Cougars are undefeated and might win the Big 12. SMU should be favored its remaining games, opening a pathway to the ACC championship game. Real contender.
Pittsburgh (6-0): Like Indiana, Pitt is made vulnerable to snub because of a soft strength of schedule. Unlike Indiana, the Panthers win in white-knuckle fashion. Three wins came by four points or fewer. Credit the grit, but brace for the second-half wobble against a stiffening schedule that includes SMU and Clemson. Longshot contender.
Army (7-0): Army’s option offense is a beautiful sight. To have hope of a playoff bid, Army needs to beat Notre Dame, win out, and a two-loss team winning the Mountain West would assist the cause. Of note, the Army-Navy game on Dec. 14 won’t count toward playoff determination. That presents as a sticky wicket for the playoff committee. Would it risk placing Army or Navy into the playoff, knowing that either could lose the following week and soil the committee’s selection? Longshot contender.
Navy (6-0): Sound fundamentals, roster retention and player development still resonate. Behold Army and Navy. Everything I wrote about Army is also true of Navy. The Midshipmen need to beat Notre Dame, run the table, and root for a two-loss Mountain West champion. Longshot contender.
Illinois (6-1): Bret Bielema’s return to the Big Ten has been “borderline erotic,” as he would say. The formula Bielema used to success at Wisconsin also resonates at Illinois. The Illini join Indiana as basketball schools with a playoff prayer. The trouble for Illinois is it drew a tougher schedule than Indiana, and the Illini are a 21½-point Saturday underdog at Oregon. And a loss effectively eliminates Illinois, making the Illini … The ultimate longshot.
Battle for the bottom
Alabama fans ready to punt Kalen DeBoer back to Washington, take solace: At least the Tide didn’t hire Mike Norvell. And at least you’re not Auburn.
With five games to go, Norvell’s Florida State Seminoles (1-6) already wrapped up the gold for biggest flop. Fresh off a 13-1 season, the ‘Noles checked out of the penthouse and into the outhouse.
In the stall next to them is Southern California (3-4). That the Trojans lost to Penn State was no disaster, but they also own losses to Michigan, Maryland and Minnesota. M-M-Mercy.
Lincoln Riley avoided the SEC by jettisoning Oklahoma for USC, but he’s found the Big Ten to be too tough. Perhaps he should relegate back to the Big 12. If you can’t cut it L.A., try Waco, Texas.
Monstrous, cost-prohibitive buyouts protect Norvell and Riley.
That’s not true of Hugh Freeze, who eyes the bronze in bust battle royale.
Auburn (2-5) keeps finding ways to lose. The latest: Missouri marched 95 yards to steal a 21-17 victory. Freeze’s $20-plus million buyout is a fraction what it would cost either Florida State or USC to make a coaching change, and Auburn has a firm stomach for buyouts.
A 2025 recruiting class that ranks No. 5 nationally by 247sports gives Freeze the thinnest layer of cover. In a time when boosters influence recruiting as much as the coach, are some pledged blue-chippers enough to save a beleaguered coach?
Ask me again next month when we what Auburn’s record is and whether that recruiting class slipped.
Three and out
1. Georgia’s 30-15 upset of Texas boosted the SEC’s quest to horde the most playoff bids. Texas had been the conference’s last remaining undefeated team, and even after defeat, the Longhorns enjoy a navigable path to the playoff, while Georgia solidified its footing. Unless the bubble clears significantly, five bids for any conference feels almost out of reach, but the result in Austin increased the SEC’s chance for four bids.
2. Coaches will do almost anything to gain an advantage, so how long until a coach reflects on Saturday’s situation at Missouri and begins campaigning for a hospital to be built next to the stadium? Missouri quarterback Brady Cook made a midgame hospital trip during the Tigers’ win against Auburn for an MRI on his injured ankle. University Hospital is just across the street from Faurot Field. Cook had time to get evaluated and return to engineer a fourth-quarter comeback. “No. 1 characteristic of an elite quarterback is toughness,” Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz said, “and that guy’s got it written all over him.” And a relevant characteristic of any hospital is its proximity to you.
3. My latest “Topp Rope” playoff projection: Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Clemson (ACC), Brigham Young (Big 12), Boise State (Group of Five), plus at-large selections Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Oregon, Penn State, Notre Dame, Miami. Next up: Iowa State, LSU, Indiana, SMU, Kansas State.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
The ‘Topp Rope’ is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network.
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